Joseph Ugarte — Louisville Regional champion (M-C)
Sun with Mega Charizard Y and Venusaur, Farigiraf Trick Room as an alternate mode and Choice Scarf Garchomp, winner of the 1,013-player Louisville Regional. Showdown simulations against the real top 8 show it beating Salamence/Whimsicott/Kingambit cores and losing to rain with Archaludon and to sand with Mega Tyranitar.
2026-10-11 · Pokémon Champions
executive summary
Decision-ready overview
Analysis
Static
Team Auditor Pro v4 no simula turnos ni representa porcentaje de victoria real.
Static team score
83.5
El auditor detecta 18 roles estáticos distintos. El perfil defensivo contiene 0 debilidades compartidas de riesgo alto. La cobertura de Protect es 3/6.
Static grade
A
Equipo estáticamente muy sólido, con herramientas amplias y pocos huecos graves.
Role coverage
100.0
19 roles detectados: Glue, Speed Control, soporte, Trick Room, anti-Trick Room, cleaner, Endgame Piece, Fake Out, Intimidate, Pivot.
Offensive coverage
100.0
Tipos ofensivos presentes: Dark, Dragon, Electric, Fairy, Fire, Grass, Ground, Normal, Poison, Psychic, Rock.
Speed control
85.0
Dual Speed. Herramientas: Farigiraf · Trick Room.
Weather plan
80.0
Sun mediante Charizard.
Protect coverage
3 of 6
Usuarios: Charizard, Sylveon, Venusaur.
Risk
Medium
Dependencias principales: Ice Switch: Incineroar; Rock Switch: Garchomp; Water Switch: Venusaur.
- Status
- Regional champion (1,013 Masters); A structure in the static model
- Pilot difficulty
- High: two speed modes (Trick Room or Scarf) chosen at Team Preview
- Confidence
- High for the event and sheet; medium for estimated EVs; medium-low for simulations
- Best use
- Against the fast Sneasler, Kingambit, Basculegion and Whimsicott cores that dominated the top 8: sun + Heat Wave + Sleep Powder, with the option to flip speed with Trick Room.
- Hardest matchup
- Rain (Pelipper/Politoed with Archaludon) and sand with Mega Tyranitar: in simulations it wins 0–15 % of those games.
- Priority change
- Do not change the champion team: decide in advance which four come with Trick Room and which with Scarf Garchomp.
- Next step
- Test the weather wars (rain and sand) by hand and turn 1 against double Fake Out.
- Summary
- The title proves the sun + Trick Room plan works at the top level; the data on this page show where it breaks: opposing weather that cancels the sun.
team
Published set
Curated public content. Internal files and raw reports are not included.
Set details
- Item
- Sitrus Berry
- Ability
- Armor Tail
- Nature / EVs
- Quiet · 32 HP / 2 Def / 32 SpA (estimated)
- Role
- Trick Room setter and support
Moves
- — Psychic
- — Thunderbolt
- — Helping Hand
- — Trick Room
Secondary roles
Armor Tail blocks priority · Helping Hand
Competitive notes
Armor Tail stops Fake Out and Sucker Punch on its side, protecting the Trick Room turn. Quiet with no Speed: the slowest Pokémon of the top 8 (72).
Base stats
- Stats
- Label
- HP
- Value
- 120
- Rank
- #54
- Label
- Atk
- Value
- 90
- Rank
- #514
- Label
- Def
- Value
- 70
- Rank
- #693
- Label
- Sp. Atk
- Value
- 110
- Rank
- #214
- Label
- Sp. Def
- Value
- 70
- Rank
- #683
- Label
- Spe
- Value
- 60
- Rank
- #817
- Label
- BST
- Value
- 520
- Rank
- #385
Type profile
- Weaknesses
- — Bug x2
- — Dark x2
- Resistances
- — Psychic x0.5
- Immunities
- — Ghost x0
- Notes
- — Type profile computed by Team Auditor Pro v4 from the published set.
Set details
- Item
- Chople Berry
- Ability
- Intimidate
- Nature / EVs
- Adamant · 32 HP / 32 Atk / 2 SpD (estimated)
- Role
- Fake Out and Intimidate
Moves
- — Flare Blitz
- — Darkest Lariat
- — Parting Shot
- — Fake Out
Secondary roles
Parting Shot · Chople Berry
Competitive notes
Classic pivot: Intimidate on physical attackers, Fake Out for the Trick Room or Mega turn. Chople Berry against Sneasler's Close Combat.
Base stats
- Stats
- Label
- HP
- Value
- 95
- Rank
- #220
- Label
- Atk
- Value
- 115
- Rank
- #243
- Label
- Def
- Value
- 90
- Rank
- #391
- Label
- Sp. Atk
- Value
- 80
- Rank
- #531
- Label
- Sp. Def
- Value
- 90
- Rank
- #365
- Label
- Spe
- Value
- 60
- Rank
- #826
- Label
- BST
- Value
- 530
- Rank
- #339
Type profile
- Weaknesses
- — Fighting x2
- — Ground x2
- — Rock x2
- — Water x2
- Resistances
- — Dark x0.5
- — Fire x0.5
- — Ghost x0.5
- — Grass x0.5
- — Ice x0.5
- — Steel x0.5
- Immunities
- — Psychic x0
- Notes
- — Type profile computed by Team Auditor Pro v4 from the published set.
Set details
- Item
- Charizardite Y
- Ability
- Blaze
- Nature / EVs
- Modest · 2 HP / 32 SpA / 32 Spe (estimated)
- Role
- Special Mega attacker and sun setter
Moves
- — Heat Wave
- — Weather Ball
- — Ancient Power
- — Protect
Secondary roles
Drought · Spread Heat Wave
Competitive notes
Mega Charizard Y sets sun when it Mega Evolves. Heat Wave in sun is its main hit; Ancient Power covers other Fire/Flying types.
Base stats
- Stats
- Label
- HP
- Value
- 78
- Rank
- #464
- Label
- Atk
- Value
- 84
- Rank
- #624
- Label
- Def
- Value
- 78
- Rank
- #579
- Label
- Sp. Atk
- Value
- 109
- Rank
- #233
- Label
- Sp. Def
- Value
- 85
- Rank
- #418
- Label
- Spe
- Value
- 100
- Rank
- #226
- Label
- BST
- Value
- 534
- Rank
- #312
Type profile
- Weaknesses
- — Rock x4
- — Electric x2
- — Water x2
- Resistances
- — Bug x0.25
- — Grass x0.25
- — Fairy x0.5
- — Fighting x0.5
- — Fire x0.5
- — Steel x0.5
- Immunities
- — Ground x0
- Notes
- — Type profile computed by Team Auditor Pro v4 from the published set.
Set details
- Item
- Fairy Feather
- Ability
- Pixilate
- Nature / EVs
- Modest · 32 HP / 2 Def / 32 SpA (estimated)
- Role
- Slow special attacker (Trick Room)
Moves
- — Hyper Voice
- — Moonblast
- — Yawn
- — Protect
Secondary roles
Spread Fairy Hyper Voice · Yawn
Competitive notes
Pixilate + Fairy Feather turn Hyper Voice into a very strong spread Fairy attack under Trick Room; Yawn forces switches.
Base stats
- Stats
- Label
- HP
- Value
- 95
- Rank
- #235
- Label
- Atk
- Value
- 65
- Rank
- #923
- Label
- Def
- Value
- 65
- Rank
- #835
- Label
- Sp. Atk
- Value
- 110
- Rank
- #227
- Label
- Sp. Def
- Value
- 130
- Rank
- #46
- Label
- Spe
- Value
- 60
- Rank
- #861
- Label
- BST
- Value
- 525
- Rank
- #371
Type profile
- Weaknesses
- — Poison x2
- — Steel x2
- Resistances
- — Bug x0.5
- — Dark x0.5
- — Fighting x0.5
- Immunities
- — Dragon x0
- Notes
- — Type profile computed by Team Auditor Pro v4 from the published set.
Set details
- Item
- Focus Sash
- Ability
- Chlorophyll
- Nature / EVs
- Modest · 2 HP / 32 SpA / 32 Spe (estimated)
- Role
- Sun abuser
Moves
- — Leaf Storm
- — Sludge Bomb
- — Sleep Powder
- — Protect
Secondary roles
Chlorophyll · Sleep Powder
Competitive notes
Doubles its Speed in sun (132 → 264). Sleep Powder is the team's most dangerous control tool; Focus Sash guarantees a turn.
Base stats
- Stats
- Label
- HP
- Value
- 80
- Rank
- #447
- Label
- Atk
- Value
- 82
- Rank
- #645
- Label
- Def
- Value
- 83
- Rank
- #497
- Label
- Sp. Atk
- Value
- 100
- Rank
- #322
- Label
- Sp. Def
- Value
- 100
- Rank
- #258
- Label
- Spe
- Value
- 80
- Rank
- #559
- Label
- BST
- Value
- 525
- Rank
- #375
Type profile
- Weaknesses
- — Fire x2
- — Flying x2
- — Ice x2
- — Psychic x2
- Resistances
- — Grass x0.25
- — Electric x0.5
- — Fairy x0.5
- — Fighting x0.5
- — Water x0.5
- Notes
- — Type profile computed by Team Auditor Pro v4 from the published set.
Set details
- Item
- Choice Scarf
- Ability
- Rough Skin
- Nature / EVs
- Adamant · 2 HP / 32 Atk / 32 Spe (estimated)
- Role
- Choice Scarf: fast mode
Moves
- — Rock Slide
- — Stomping Tantrum
- — Dragon Claw
- — Earthquake
Secondary roles
Spread Earthquake and Rock Slide
Competitive notes
With Scarf it reaches 154 and outspeeds 74 % of the field. It is the alternative to Trick Room when normal speed order is better.
Base stats
- Stats
- Label
- HP
- Value
- 108
- Rank
- #93
- Label
- Atk
- Value
- 130
- Rank
- #113
- Label
- Def
- Value
- 95
- Rank
- #325
- Label
- Sp. Atk
- Value
- 80
- Rank
- #527
- Label
- Sp. Def
- Value
- 85
- Rank
- #427
- Label
- Spe
- Value
- 102
- Rank
- #214
- Label
- BST
- Value
- 600
- Rank
- #116
Type profile
- Weaknesses
- — Ice x4
- — Dragon x2
- — Fairy x2
- Resistances
- — Fire x0.5
- — Poison x0.5
- — Rock x0.5
- Immunities
- — Electric x0
- Notes
- — Type profile computed by Team Auditor Pro v4 from the published set.
types
Defensive profile by opposing type
An aggregate map of weaknesses, resistances, and immunities. Use it as a risk map, not as a battle simulation.
Ice
Risk high2 weak1 answer
Weak (2)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Garchomp×4
- Venusaur×2
Defensive answers (1)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Incineroar×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Rock
Risk high2 weak1 answer
Weak (2)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Charizard×4
- Incineroar×2
Defensive answers (1)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Garchomp×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Water
Risk medium2 weak1 answer
Weak (2)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Charizard×2
- Incineroar×2
Defensive answers (1)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Venusaur×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Flying
Risk medium1 weak0 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Venusaur×2
Defensive answers (0)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
No resistances or immunities against this type.
Dragon
Risk medium1 weak1 answer
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Garchomp×2
Defensive answers (1)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (0)
No resistances.
Immune (1)
- Sylveon×0
Ground
Risk medium1 weak1 answer
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Incineroar×2
Defensive answers (1)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (0)
No resistances.
Immune (1)
- Charizard×0
Poison
Risk medium1 weak1 answer
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Sylveon×2
Defensive answers (1)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Garchomp×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Bug
Risk medium1 weak2 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Farigiraf×2
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (2)
- Charizard×0.25
- Sylveon×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Dark
Risk medium1 weak2 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Farigiraf×2
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (2)
- Incineroar×0.5
- Sylveon×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Electric
Risk medium1 weak2 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Charizard×2
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Venusaur×0.5
Immune (1)
- Garchomp×0
Fairy
Risk medium1 weak2 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Garchomp×2
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (2)
- Charizard×0.5
- Venusaur×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Psychic
Risk medium1 weak2 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Venusaur×2
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Farigiraf×0.5
Immune (1)
- Incineroar×0
Steel
Risk medium1 weak2 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Sylveon×2
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (2)
- Charizard×0.5
- Incineroar×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Fighting
Risk medium1 weak3 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Incineroar×2
Defensive answers (3)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (3)
- Charizard×0.5
- Sylveon×0.5
- Venusaur×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Fire
Risk medium1 weak3 answers
Weak (1)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
- Venusaur×2
Defensive answers (3)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (3)
- Charizard×0.5
- Garchomp×0.5
- Incineroar×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
Normal
Risk low0 weak0 answers
The entire team takes neutral damage (×1).
Ghost
Risk low0 weak2 answers
Weak (0)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
No Pokémon on the team is weak to this type.
Defensive answers (2)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (1)
- Incineroar×0.5
Immune (1)
- Farigiraf×0
Grass
Risk low0 weak3 answers
Weak (0)
Pokémon that take super-effective damage from this type.
No Pokémon on the team is weak to this type.
Defensive answers (3)
Resistances and immunities identified for each Pokémon.
Resist (3)
- Charizard×0.25
- Venusaur×0.25
- Incineroar×0.5
Immune (0)
No immunities.
team structure
Competitive reading
Strengths
- — Two opposite speed modes on one sheet: Trick Room or sun with Scarf Garchomp.
- — Armor Tail protects the Trick Room turn from Fake Out and Sucker Punch.
- — Sun Heat Wave, Sleep Powder at 264 Speed and Psychic into Sneasler punish the fast cores of the top 8.
Weaknesses
- — Rain wins the weather: against the four Pelipper/Politoed + Archaludon teams of the top 8 it wins only 0–15 % of simulated games (50 % against Toler Webb, who mixes rain and Trick Room).
- — Sand with Mega Tyranitar and Excadrill: 0–5 % against Arthur Mosca and Javier Varela. Rock Slide does 178–212 % to Mega Charizard Y.
- — Mega Charizard Y is the centrepiece and the most fragile: 18 of 92 top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO on it (Basculegion Wave Crash 258–305 %).
- — Wave Crash and spread Water attacks punish Incineroar, Charizard and Garchomp at once.
Game plan
- — Team Preview: pick the mode. With Trick Room, Farigiraf + Incineroar lead (Fake Out + Trick Room protected by Armor Tail) with Sylveon/Charizard in the back.
- — Against slower teams or opposing Trick Room, sun mode: Charizard Y + Venusaur or Scarf Garchomp, Heat Wave and Sleep Powder from turn 1.
- — Keep Charizard alive until the opponent loses its Water or Rock answer; Incineroar takes hits with Intimidate and leaves with Parting Shot.
- — Close with Scarf Garchomp (Earthquake/Rock Slide) or Sylveon under Trick Room.
Limitations
- — EVs are not public (open team lists): every stat, speed tier and calc uses estimated standard spreads.
- — It does not claim a real win rate: simulated games use the same heuristic AI on both sides: they measure how the sheets interact, not the player's skill or the real difficulty of the matchup between humans.
- — With 40 games per opponent, differences under ~15 points are not significant; extreme results (0 % or 100 %) mostly reflect the AI repeating the same plan.
- — Damage calcs are Showdown's, with no crits, no Intimidate and no screens; incoming attacks are computed without weather unless the attacker sets it.
- — Team Auditor Pro v4 is static and does not yet load the M-C ruleset: legality was checked separately with the Showdown validator.
- — The player's games, leads and Mega choices per round are not published: the plans on this page are editorial readings, not attributed history.
- — The Extremo AI counter comes from a small sample of simulated games: it is a starting point to test, not a guaranteed recipe.
counter lab
How to beat it: data measured against the real top 8
Pokémon Showdown simulations against the top 8 teams of the M-C Regionals, Showdown damage calculations and the team Analitykos' Extremo AI builds to beat it.
Overall result
57% wins in 880 simulated games against the real top 8 (22 teams)
Method: Pokémon Showdown (5b01be8), format gen9championsvgc2026regmc. The champion and each opponent are piloted by the same heuristic AI (Analitykos Hard level) with fixed seeds; 40 games per opponent against 22 top 8 teams of the Louisville, Puebla and Gdańsk Regionals. Damage: Showdown's own damage formula, no critical hits, min/max roll.
Simulated games measure how the six sheets interact under the same pilot, not how strong the champion is in human hands: the heuristic AI does not play Team Preview or Protect like a top player. EVs are not public (open team lists): standard 66-point spreads are estimated for every team. Treat win rates as direction, not as a prediction.
Simulated games against the top 8
| Opponent | Champion wins | Champion % |
|---|---|---|
JJ MillerLouisville #4 Gholdengo · Archaludon · Pelipper · Swampert · Staraptor · Sinistcha | 0/40 | 0 % |
Arthur MoscaPuebla #3 Tyranitar · Gholdengo · Excadrill · Milotic · Staraptor · Sinistcha | 0/40 | 0 % |
Andrew FiguerasLouisville #2 Archaludon · Charizard · Pelipper · Venusaur · Grimmsnarl · Garchomp | 1/40 | 3 % |
Javier VarelaGdańsk #1 Gholdengo · Excadrill · Tyranitar · Staraptor · Sinistcha · Milotic | 2/40 | 5 % |
Liam ChatterjeeGdańsk #5 Floette-Eternal · Indeedee · Charizard · Glimmora · Garchomp · Whimsicott | 2/40 | 5 % |
Chase MatteoPuebla #7 Grimmsnarl · Pelipper · Garchomp · Venusaur · Archaludon · Charizard | 3/40 | 8 % |
Dorian KangLouisville #3 Venusaur · Politoed · Grimmsnarl · Raichu · Archaludon · Charizard | 6/40 | 15 % |
Toler WebbLouisville #6 Golisopod · Garchomp · Pelipper · Archaludon · Farigiraf · Sneasler | 20/40 | 50 % |
Brian HoughLouisville #8 Gholdengo · Dragonite · Incineroar · Sneasler · Rillaboom · Garchomp | 20/40 | 50 % |
Otoniel LongorioPuebla #6 Charizard · Farigiraf · Aerodactyl · Kingambit · Garchomp · Sylveon | 24/40 | 60 % |
Ryan LosetoLouisville #5 Rillaboom · Kingambit · Sneasler · Floette-Eternal · Salamence · Basculegion | 25/40 | 63 % |
Ko TsukideGdańsk #4 Charizard · Sneasler · Kingambit · Garchomp · Basculegion · Whimsicott | 28/40 | 70 % |
David RodríguezPuebla #5 Kingambit · Garchomp · Whimsicott · Basculegion · Charizard · Sneasler | 31/40 | 78 % |
Nikola ZirdumGdańsk #6 Rillaboom · Basculegion · Kingambit · Sneasler · Floette-Eternal · Salamence | 33/40 | 83 % |
Jude LeeGdańsk #2 Garchomp · Sneasler · Floette-Eternal · Incineroar · Rillaboom · Kingambit | 35/40 | 88 % |
Kyle LivinghousePuebla #1 Sneasler · Whimsicott · Charizard · Kingambit · Garchomp · Froslass | 39/40 | 98 % |
Renzo NavarroPuebla #2 Staraptor · Raichu · Arcanine-Hisui · Primarina · Gholdengo · Rillaboom | 39/40 | 98 % |
Michael KelschGdańsk #3 Kingambit · Sneasler · Salamence · Basculegion · Charizard · Whimsicott | 39/40 | 98 % |
Dennis KomenGdańsk #7 Basculegion · Kingambit · Whimsicott · Charizard · Salamence · Sneasler | 39/40 | 98 % |
Alex SotoGdańsk #8 Sinistcha · Floette-Eternal · Kingambit · Incineroar · Sneasler · Delphox | 39/40 | 98 % |
Keanu InosantoLouisville #7 Basculegion · Rillaboom · Floette-Eternal · Sneasler · Salamence · Kingambit | 40/40 | 100 % |
Zach HolowiakPuebla #4 Rillaboom · Blaziken · Kingambit · Sneasler · Primarina · Raichu | 40/40 | 100 % |
Speed
| Pokémon | Speed | With Tailwind | Outspeeds the field |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farigiraf Moves first under Trick Room | 72 | 144 | 1 of 58 top 8 sets (6 ties) |
| Incineroar | 80 | 160 | 7 of 58 top 8 sets (3 ties) |
| Charizard-Mega-Y | 152 | 304 | 42 of 58 top 8 sets (1 ties) |
| Sylveon | 80 | 160 | 7 of 58 top 8 sets (3 ties) |
| Venusaur In sun (Chlorophyll): 264 | 132 | 264 | 36 of 58 top 8 sets |
| Garchomp Includes Choice Scarf | 154 | 308 | 43 of 58 top 8 sets |
What hurts it most
Farigiraf
3 of 92 distinct top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO (neutral weather unless the attacker sets it, no crits, estimated EVs).
- Kingambit · Kowtow Cleave183.3%–216.3% · guaranteed OHKO
- Kingambit · Sucker Punch151.1%–178.9% · guaranteed OHKO
- Sylveon · Hyper Beam105.7%–124.7% · guaranteed OHKO
- Golisopod-Mega · Leech Life82.8%–98.7% · guaranteed 2HKO
Incineroar
3 of 92 distinct top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO (neutral weather unless the attacker sets it, no crits, estimated EVs).
- Basculegion · Wave Crash118.8%–140.6% · guaranteed OHKO
- Pelipper · Muddy Water104.5%–123.8% · guaranteed OHKO
- Glimmora · Power Gem104.5%–123.8% · guaranteed OHKO
- Milotic · Scald96%–113.9% · possible OHKO
Charizard-Mega-Y
18 of 92 distinct top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO (neutral weather unless the attacker sets it, no crits, estimated EVs).
- Basculegion · Wave Crash258.1%–304.5% · guaranteed OHKO
- Glimmora · Power Gem224.5%–271.6% · guaranteed OHKO
- Swampert-Mega · Wave Crash197.4%–233.5% · guaranteed OHKO
- Tyranitar-Mega · Rock Slide178.1%–211.6% · guaranteed OHKO
Sylveon
5 of 92 distinct top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO (neutral weather unless the attacker sets it, no crits, estimated EVs).
- Golisopod-Mega · Iron Head148.5%–175.2% · guaranteed OHKO
- Basculegion · Wave Crash111.9%–131.7% · guaranteed OHKO
- Kingambit · Iron Head105%–124.8% · guaranteed OHKO
- Excadrill · Iron Head105%–124.8% · guaranteed OHKO
Venusaur
8 of 92 distinct top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO (neutral weather unless the attacker sets it, no crits, estimated EVs).
- Blaziken-Mega · Flare Blitz194.9%–230.6% · guaranteed OHKO
- Staraptor-Mega · Brave Bird161.8%–191.1% · guaranteed OHKO
- Charizard-Mega-Y · Heat Wave146.5%–173.2% · guaranteed OHKO
- Arcanine-Hisui · Flare Blitz138.9%–165.6% · guaranteed OHKO
Garchomp
10 of 92 distinct top 8 attacks are a guaranteed OHKO (neutral weather unless the attacker sets it, no crits, estimated EVs).
- Sylveon · Hyper Beam223.8%–263.8% · guaranteed OHKO
- Froslass-Mega · Blizzard181.6%–216.2% · guaranteed OHKO
- Floette-Mega · Moonblast165.4%–195.7% · guaranteed OHKO
- Garchomp-Mega-Z · Draco Meteor160%–189.2% · guaranteed OHKO
Field Pokémon that match up best
Pelipper
Life Orb · Drizzle · Weather Ball / Muddy Water / Hurricane / Protect
Best quick matchups against Venusaur, Incineroar, Garchomp (damage dealt and taken, Speed). Set taken from Toler Webb's top 8 team.
Politoed
Mystic Water · Drizzle · Weather Ball / Protect / Ice Beam / Muddy Water
Best quick matchups against Garchomp, Charizard-Mega-Y, Incineroar (damage dealt and taken, Speed). Set taken from Dorian Kang's top 8 team.
Blaziken-Mega
Blazikenite · Speed Boost · Detect / Flare Blitz / Close Combat / Rock Slide
Best quick matchups against Charizard-Mega-Y, Incineroar, Venusaur (damage dealt and taken, Speed). Set taken from Zach Holowiak's top 8 team.
Tyranitar-Mega
Tyranitarite · Sand Stream · Rock Slide / Knock Off / Dragon Dance / Protect
Best quick matchups against Charizard-Mega-Y, Farigiraf, Incineroar (damage dealt and taken, Speed). Set taken from Javier Varela's top 8 team.
Incineroar
Sitrus Berry · Intimidate · Flare Blitz / Fake Out / Parting Shot / Helping Hand
Best quick matchups against Venusaur, Farigiraf, Sylveon (damage dealt and taken, Speed). Set taken from Jude Lee's top 8 team.
Garchomp-Mega
Garchompite · Rough Skin · Stomping Tantrum / Scale Shot / Protect / Rock Slide
Best quick matchups against Charizard-Mega-Y, Incineroar, Garchomp (damage dealt and taken, Speed). Set taken from Jude Lee's top 8 team.
Plan: offensive
Counter built by the Extremo AI
Dragonite · Basculegion · Incineroar · Sylveon · Samurott-Hisui · Metagross — 21/21 simulated wins against the champion
- - Extremo tested 6 different proposals and kept the one that won most; samples are small (early elimination).
- - Dragonite: contra Garchomp y Venusaur
- - Basculegion: contra Charizard-Mega-Y y Incineroar
- - Incineroar: Fake Out; contra Venusaur y Sylveon
- - Sylveon: contra Garchomp y Farigiraf
- - Samurott-Hisui: contra Farigiraf y Charizard-Mega-Y
- - Metagross: contra Sylveon y Venusaur
Team (Showdown format)
Dragonite @ Dragoninite Ability: Inner Focus Level: 50 EVs: 21 HP / 32 SpA / 13 Spe Modest Nature - Draco Meteor - Surf - Hurricane - Protect Basculegion (M) @ Life Orb Ability: Adaptability Level: 50 EVs: 32 HP / 32 Atk / 1 Def / 1 SpD Adamant Nature - Wave Crash - Last Respects - Aqua Jet - Protect Incineroar @ Sitrus Berry Ability: Intimidate Level: 50 EVs: 32 HP / 32 Atk / 1 SpD / 1 Spe Adamant Nature - Flare Blitz - Throat Chop - Fake Out - Parting Shot Sylveon @ Fairy Feather Ability: Pixilate Level: 50 EVs: 32 HP / 1 Def / 32 SpA / 1 Spe Modest Nature - Hyper Voice - Hyper Beam - Quick Attack - Detect Samurott (Samurott-Hisui) @ Focus Sash Ability: Sharpness Level: 50 EVs: 6 HP / 32 Atk / 28 Spe Adamant Nature - Razor Shell - Night Slash - X-Scissor - Protect Metagross @ Metagrossite Ability: Clear Body Level: 50 EVs: 27 HP / 16 Atk / 23 Spe Adamant Nature - Ice Punch - Psychic Fangs - Protect - Meteor Mash
analysis
Tool runs
- Tool
- Team Auditor Pro v4
- Scope
- Exact sheet with estimated spreads
- Output
- 83.5 (A) base; 83.7 (A) with Mega Charizard Y; roles 100, offensive coverage 100, speed 85, Protect 3/6.
- Confidence
- Medium
- Publishable
- Yes, as a static audit with visible limits.
- Tool
- Showdown simulations vs top 8
- Scope
- 22 teams × 40 games
- Output
- 57% wins in 880 simulated games against the real top 8 (22 teams)
- Confidence
- Medium-low (heuristic pilot)
- Publishable
- Yes, as direction with the method visible.
- Tool
- Showdown damage calcs
- Scope
- Champion attacks vs the 12 most common top 8 Pokémon and every top 8 attack into each member
- Output
- 552 incoming and 128 outgoing calcs
- Confidence
- High for the formula; medium for spreads
- Publishable
- Yes.
- Tool
- Analitykos Extremo team builder
- Scope
- Full M-C pool, tournament set library, simulated selection
- Output
- 21/21 simulated wins against the champion
- Confidence
- Low-medium (small sample)
- Publishable
- Yes, as a starting point to test.
analysis
Damage benchmarks
- Attacker
- Farigiraf
- Move
- Psychic
- Target
- Sneasler
- Damage range
- 231.8%–275.2% (364–432 HP)
- Scenario
- Showdown calc · sun · estimated EVs
- Competitive implication
- guaranteed OHKO.
- Caveat
- No crits, no Intimidate or screens; the real EVs of both sides may change thresholds near 50 % and 100 %.
- Attacker
- Incineroar
- Move
- Flare Blitz
- Target
- Whimsicott
- Damage range
- 259.9%–308% (356–422 HP)
- Scenario
- Showdown calc · sun · estimated EVs
- Competitive implication
- guaranteed OHKO.
- Caveat
- No crits, no Intimidate or screens; the real EVs of both sides may change thresholds near 50 % and 100 %.
- Attacker
- Charizard-Mega-Y
- Move
- Heat Wave
- Target
- Whimsicott
- Damage range
- 216.1%–255.5% (296–350 HP)
- Scenario
- Showdown calc · sun · spread (×0.75) · estimated EVs
- Competitive implication
- guaranteed OHKO.
- Caveat
- No crits, no Intimidate or screens; the real EVs of both sides may change thresholds near 50 % and 100 %.
- Attacker
- Sylveon
- Move
- Moonblast
- Target
- Garchomp
- Damage range
- 117.8%–140.5% (218–260 HP)
- Scenario
- Showdown calc · sun · estimated EVs
- Competitive implication
- guaranteed OHKO.
- Caveat
- No crits, no Intimidate or screens; the real EVs of both sides may change thresholds near 50 % and 100 %.
- Attacker
- Venusaur
- Move
- Sludge Bomb
- Target
- Whimsicott
- Damage range
- 262.8%–309.5% (360–424 HP)
- Scenario
- Showdown calc · sun · estimated EVs
- Competitive implication
- guaranteed OHKO.
- Caveat
- No crits, no Intimidate or screens; the real EVs of both sides may change thresholds near 50 % and 100 %.
- Attacker
- Garchomp
- Move
- Stomping Tantrum
- Target
- Sneasler
- Damage range
- 135%–160.5% (212–252 HP)
- Scenario
- Showdown calc · sun · estimated EVs
- Competitive implication
- guaranteed OHKO.
- Caveat
- No crits, no Intimidate or screens; the real EVs of both sides may change thresholds near 50 % and 100 %.
analysis
Counterplay matrix
- Threat
- Mega Charizard Y sun
- Pressure
- Sun Heat Wave OHKOs Whimsicott (216–256 %) and pressures Kingambit, Rillaboom and Sneasler at once.
- Primary answers
- — Pelipper or Politoed (Drizzle)
- — Mega Tyranitar (Sand Stream)
- — Basculegion: Wave Crash 258–305 % to Charizard
- Failure mode
- Bringing your weather out before Charizard: whoever comes in last keeps the weather.
- Test plan
- Hold the weather setter to come in after Charizard Mega Evolves or after a KO.
- Evidence
- Simulations: the champion wins 0–15 % against the Archaludon rain teams of the top 8.
- Threat
- Farigiraf Trick Room
- Pressure
- Armor Tail blocks Fake Out and Sucker Punch, so Trick Room almost always goes up.
- Primary answers
- — Double-target Farigiraf before it moves
- — Taunt or Imprison (Indeedee)
- — Protect through Trick Room and stall its turns
- Failure mode
- Trying to Fake Out Farigiraf: Armor Tail blocks it.
- Test plan
- Count the 4 Trick Room turns and keep a slow Pokémon of your own for them.
- Evidence
- Open team list: Quiet Farigiraf with Trick Room and Helping Hand.
- Threat
- Sun Venusaur: Sleep Powder
- Pressure
- At 264 Speed it puts to sleep before the whole top 8 except Scarf and priority.
- Primary answers
- — Grass types and Safety Goggles (powder immune)
- — Remove the sun (rain/sand) so it drops back to 132
- — Block or switch: Focus Sash does not help
- Failure mode
- Letting two Pokémon fall asleep while Charizard attacks.
- Test plan
- Bring a powder-immune answer or a weather change to every game.
- Evidence
- Computed tier: 264 in sun vs 184 for the field's fastest Timid Whimsicott.
method
Evidence and provenance
- Event
- Name
- 2027 Louisville Regional Championships — VGC Masters
- Organizer
- Play! Pokémon
- Player
- Joseph Ugarte
- Placement
- 1st
- Field size
- 1,013 Masters
- Record
- 10-2
- Dates
- October 10–11, 2026
- Format
- In person · Louisville (USA) · Pokémon Champions · Regulation M-C · 8+4 Swiss rounds, open team lists
- Sources
- Label
- Victory Road — event results and top 8 teams
- Source
- Open source
- Evidence supplied
- Placement, record, field size, dates, regulation and top 8 teams.
- Label
- Joseph Ugarte's open team list (VR Pastes)
- Source
- Open source
- Evidence supplied
- Species, items, abilities, moves and natures. EVs and IVs are hidden in open team lists.
- Confirmed fields
- — species
- — items
- — abilities
- — moves
- — natures
- — placement and record
- Unavailable fields
- — EVs (stat points)
- — IVs
- — games and leads per round
method
Validation method
- Mode
- diagnostic-proxy
- Method
- Open team list verified on Victory Road; legality checked with the Pokémon Showdown validator for M-C; Team Auditor Pro v4 static audit; Showdown simulations and damage calcs against the top 8.
- Input status
- Sets confirmed except EVs: standard spreads estimated from the nature.
- Proxy policy
- Estimated EVs are only a technical model for stats, speed tiers and damage; they are not attributed to the player.
- Confirmed
- — Open team list
- — Placement and record
- — M-C legality (Showdown validator)
- Reconstructed
- — 66-point spreads
- — Final stats and speed tiers derived from them
- Excluded
- — Games and leads of each round
- — Win rates against humans
method
EV research
- Status
- inferred
- Headline
- EVs are not public: open team lists hide them.
- Source gap
- Victory Road publishes the open team list (no EVs or IVs).
- Working model
- Level 50, native Champions scale (max 32 per stat, 66 total), IVs 31 as the format requires; spread chosen from nature and role.
- Conversion
- Native 0–32 scale; no conversion to 510 EVs.
- Usage rule
- Use the spreads shown only to reproduce the calcs on this page.
- Alternatives
- — Farigiraf and Sylveon could run more bulk at the cost of Special Attack.
- — Scarf Garchomp could be Jolly instead of Adamant for speed ties.